---
title: "OTTO Lab"
body-classes: home
toc: false
---
::: {.hero}
<p class="hero-affiliation">School of Psychological Sciences · Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington</p>
<h1 class="hero-title">OTTO <em>Lab</em></h1>
<p class="hero-descriptor">Observational Target Trial Operations</p>
```{=html}
<figure class="hero-dag" id="hero-dag">
<svg class="dag" viewBox="18 0 328 216" role="img" aria-labelledby="dag-title dag-desc">
<title id="dag-title">Causal diagram of a target trial emulation</title>
<desc id="dag-desc">In temporal order: an unmeasured variable U affects baseline covariates W0 and the outcome Y2; W0 affects treatment A1 and Y2. W0 is then boxed to show conditioning. The treatment node splits to set treatment to a, as in a single-world intervention graph, and an arrow runs from a to the potential outcome Y2(a). Given W0, Y2(a) is independent of the treatment received.</desc>
<g aria-hidden="true">
<text class="dag-phase dag-phase-obs" x="340" y="16" text-anchor="end">CAUSAL DIAGRAM</text>
<text class="dag-phase dag-phase-int" x="340" y="16" text-anchor="end">SINGLE-WORLD INTERVENTION</text>
<text class="dag-node dag-u" x="44" y="53" text-anchor="middle">U</text>
<text class="dag-micro" x="23" y="16">UNMEASURED</text>
<text class="dag-node" x="44" y="135" text-anchor="middle">W<tspan class="dag-sub" dy="5">0</tspan></text>
<text class="dag-node" x="164" y="135" text-anchor="middle">A<tspan class="dag-sub" dy="5">1</tspan></text>
<text class="dag-node" x="292" y="135" text-anchor="middle">Y<tspan class="dag-sub" dy="5">2</tspan></text>
<rect class="dag-box" x="22" y="111" width="44" height="37" rx="2" pathLength="1"/>
<g class="dag-split">
<line class="dag-bar" x1="189" y1="106" x2="189" y2="146"/>
<text class="dag-node dag-fixed" x="198" y="135">a</text>
</g>
<text class="dag-node dag-fixed dag-po" x="308" y="135">(a)</text>
<g class="dag-edge dag-e-la"><path d="M72.0 126.0 L140.0 126.0" pathLength="1"/><polygon points="146.0,126.0 138.0,129.4 138.0,122.6"/></g>
<g class="dag-edge dag-e-ly"><path d="M58.0 150.0 Q162.7 205.0 269.4 145.6" pathLength="1"/><polygon points="276.0,142.0 270.7,148.9 267.4,143.0"/></g>
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<g class="dag-edge dag-edge-dashed dag-e-uy"><path d="M60.0 58.0 Q191.9 52.2 271.1 106.6"/><polygon points="276.0,110.0 267.5,108.1 271.5,102.6"/></g>
<g class="dag-edge dag-edge-int dag-e-int"><path d="M216.0 126.0 L266.0 126.0" pathLength="1"/><polygon points="272.0,126.0 264.0,129.4 264.0,122.6"/></g>
<line class="dag-axis" x1="22" y1="190" x2="344" y2="190"/>
<text class="dag-micro" x="23" y="210">BASELINE</text>
<text class="dag-micro" x="164" y="210" text-anchor="middle">TREATMENT</text>
<text class="dag-micro" x="292" y="210" text-anchor="middle">OUTCOME</text>
</g>
</svg>
<figcaption class="hero-dag-caption">
<span>The diagram draws the causal structure in temporal order and boxes <i>W</i><sub>0</sub> to show conditioning. It then sets treatment to <i>a</i>, splitting <i>A</i><sub>1</sub>. Given <i>W</i><sub>0</sub>, the potential outcome <i>Y</i><sub>2</sub>(<i>a</i>) is independent of the treatment received.</span>
<button type="button" class="dag-toggle" hidden>Pause</button>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<script>
// pause control for the hero diagram (wcag 2.2.2); hidden when motion is reduced
(function () {
var fig = document.getElementById("hero-dag");
var btn = fig && fig.querySelector(".dag-toggle");
if (!btn || window.matchMedia("(prefers-reduced-motion: reduce)").matches) return;
btn.hidden = false;
btn.setAttribute("aria-label", "Pause diagram animation");
btn.addEventListener("click", function () {
var paused = fig.classList.toggle("is-paused");
btn.textContent = paused ? "Play" : "Pause";
btn.setAttribute("aria-label", (paused ? "Play" : "Pause") + " diagram animation");
});
})();
</script>
```
<p class="hero-lede">How do religion, values, and everyday experiences affect people's lives? Many questions in psychological science are difficult to study through experiments. At OTTO Lab, we develop and apply methods for causal inference from observational data: learning about the effects of specified changes from what people experience in their lives. Causal interpretation depends on the study design and its assumptions. We also build research tools, teach these methods, and collaborate with investigators across New Zealand and around the world.</p>
<div class="hero-actions">
<a href="research.qmd" class="btn btn-primary">Research</a>
<a href="resources.qmd" class="btn btn-secondary">Methods & resources</a>
<a href="mailto:joseph.bulbulia@vuw.ac.nz" class="btn btn-secondary">joseph.bulbulia@vuw.ac.nz</a>
</div>
:::
## Selected work
[Target trial emulation shows that supported causal effects of religious attendance on well-being are selective](https://doi.org/10.1017/ehs.2026.10043)
Bulbulia, Davis, Park, Rice, Troughton, Van Tongeren & Sibley (2026). *Evolutionary Human Sciences*, 8. [DOI](https://doi.org/10.1017/ehs.2026.10043)
[Beyond deficit narratives: Religious practice, meaning, and resilience in a national sample of New Zealand Muslims](https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2026.2645568)
Bulbulia, Afzali, Rasheed, Troughton, Yogeeswaran & Sibley (2026). *Religion, Brain & Behavior*, in press. [DOI](https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2026.2645568)
[Religion, cooperation, and prosocial behavior: Methods and evidence for causality](https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2026.2695639)
McCullough, Davis & Bulbulia (2026). *Religion, Brain & Behavior*, in press. [DOI](https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2026.2695639)
[Long-term causal effects of far-right terrorism in New Zealand](https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/2/8/pgad242/7244773)
Bulbulia, Afzali, Yogeeswaran & Sibley (2023). *PNAS Nexus*
[Life loses some meaning after leaving religion](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2026-71076-001)
Van Tongeren, Davis, Sibley & Bulbulia (2025). *Psychology of Religion and Spirituality*
[The causal effects of religious service attendance on prosocial behaviours in New Zealand](https://openaccess.wgtn.ac.nz/articles/journal_contribution/The_causal_effects_of_religious_service_attendance_on_prosocial_behaviours_in_New_Zealand_A_national_longitudinal_study/28386350)
Bulbulia, Davis, Rice, Sibley & Troughton (2024). *Archive for the Psychology of Religion*
[Methods in causal inference: a four-part tutorial series](resources.qmd#start-here-methods-in-causal-inference-series)
Bulbulia (2024). *Evolutionary Human Sciences*
[Causal effect of psychopathy on partner well-being](https://doi.org/10.1111/jopy.70042)
Hissey, Eisenbarth, Hammond, Sibley & Bulbulia (2025). *Journal of Personality*
[All publications](research.qmd)
## `religionmap.org`
[`religionmap.org`](https://religionmap.org/) maps places of worship worldwide for reproducible spatial and cultural analysis.
[Visit `religionmap.org`](https://religionmap.org/) · [Code](https://github.com/go-bayes/places-of-worship)
## Collaboration and teaching
The lab supports graduate supervision, methods teaching in causal inference, and applied collaboration. We welcome enquiries.
::: {.home-links}
[Meet the lab](team.qmd) · [Presentations](presentations.qmd) · [News](news.qmd) · [Reports](reports.qmd)
:::
::: {.home-affiliation-line}
Affiliated with the [Centre for Applied Cross-Cultural Research](https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/cacr) · [School of Psychological Sciences](https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/psyc) · [GitHub](https://github.com/go-bayes)
:::